We believe the market has a different perspective on the outlook for lithium prices, which is the key valuation driver for IGO. In our view, lithium prices are approaching a cyclical bottom, presenting an attractive entry point for investors. Currently, lithium is trading significantly below our estimate of the marginal cost of production, and we anticipate a price recovery as end-market demand increases and higher-cost supply is phased out. IGO's main asset is its minority stake in Greenbushes, recognized as one of the highest-quality and lowest-cost hard rock lithium mines globally. This asset provides a narrow economic moat for the company. We project that lithium demand will nearly triple by 2030 compared to 2023 levels, primarily fueled by electric vehicle sales. To accommodate this growth, IGO intends to expand its capacity at Greenbushes by approximately two-thirds by the end of the decade.
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